Ligue 1 Predictions

Weekly Ligue 1 Betting Tips

Below you’ll find our weekly Ligue 1 tips across the most important football betting markets, including Correct Score, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Total Shots on Target, and Match Result. These expert football tips are based on form analysis, head-to-head records, and statistical patterns from France’s top division, covering everything from Le Classique to relegation battles.

Ligue 1 Betting Tips

Match	Betting tips
MarseilleNantes04/01/2026, 14:00	Correct Score: 3-1 BTTS: Yes Over 1.5 Goals: Yes Total SoT: Over 9.5 Match Result: Home Win
BrestAuxerre04/01/2026, 16:15	Correct Score: 1-0 BTTS: No Over 1.5 Goals: No Total SoT: Over 2.5 Match Result: Home Win
Le HavreAngers04/01/2026, 16:15	Correct Score: 0-1 BTTS: No Over 1.5 Goals: No Total SoT: Over 2.5 Match Result: Away Win
LorientMetz04/01/2026, 16:15	Correct Score: 2-1 BTTS: Yes Over 1.5 Goals: Yes Total SoT: Over 7.5 Match Result: Home Win
PSGParis FC04/01/2026, 19:45	Correct Score: 3-1 BTTS: Yes Over 1.5 Goals: Yes Total SoT: Over 9.5 Match Result: Home Win

Ligue 1 Outrights Tips for 2025/2026 Season

Outright betting in Ligue 1 revolves around season-long outcomes rather than individual fixtures. Bettors forecast outcomes such as Winner, Top Three Finish (Champions League Qualification), Relegation, and Top Goalscorer. These long-term wagers, often called ante-post bets, are priced before the season begins and updated as results unfold.

Our football predictions for the 2025/26 Ligue 1 season follow below.

Who will win Ligue 1 this season?

Paris Saint-Germain are priced at 1/14 (93.3%) by most major bookmakers to win the 2025/26 Ligue 1 title. Fresh from a treble under Luis Enrique, they remain the dominant force with a squad that already features Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and is further strengthened by new goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier.

The second most likely contender to win Ligue 1 this season is AS Monaco at 14/1 (6.7%). Monaco’s blend of youthful talent with experienced arrivals such as Paul Pogba and Eric Dier gives them the depth to compete, though consistency is key to win Ligue 1.

More detail on the 2 clubs most likely to win Ligue 1 in 2025/26 is given below.

• Paris Saint-Germain (1/14, 93.3%). Paris Saint-Germain are the main candidate to win Ligue 1 due to their treble-winning season under Luis Enrique and the depth of a squad packed with elite players. PSG secured the 2024/25 title with six games to spare and arrive in 2025/26 structurally stronger. Lucas Chevalier has replaced Gianluigi Donnarumma as first-choice goalkeeper, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia adds another layer of creativity to the attack, and Vitinha remains central in midfield. With balance across all lines and Enrique’s tactical clarity in place, PSG are the strongest candidate to win Ligue 1 again this season.
• AS Monaco (14/1, 6.7%). AS Monaco are the second main candidate to win Ligue 1 due to the blend of youthful energy and experienced reinforcements that stabilise their squad. A third-place finish last season underlined their consistency, and summer moves for Paul Pogba and Eric Dier have brought leadership and defensive strength. With established young forwards adding pace and unpredictability, Monaco have the foundation to compete at the top. While surpassing PSG remains unlikely, they are the second most likely club to win Ligue 1 in 2025/26.

Who is most likely to finish Top 4 in Ligue 1 this season?

Paris Saint-Germain are overwhelming favourites to finish in the Top 3 at odds of 1/100 (99%) thanks to their treble-winning squad and Luis Enrique’s leadership. AS Monaco at 13/20 (61%) look set to join them with the balance provided by Paul Pogba and Eric Dier, while Marseille at 17/20 (55%) rely on Roberto De Zerbi’s tactical approach and the goal threat of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to make the Top 3.

More detail on the 3 clubs most likely to finish in the Top 3 in Ligue 1 2025/26 is given below.

• Paris Saint-Germain (1/100, 99%). Paris Saint-Germain are the main candidate to finish Top 3 in Ligue 1 due to their treble-winning season under Luis Enrique and a squad reinforced by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Lucas Chevalier. PSG secured the 2024/25 title with six games to spare and arrive this season with even greater balance. PSG are the strongest candidate to finish Top 3 in Ligue 1 this season.
• AS Monaco (13/20, 61%). AS Monaco are the second main candidate to finish Top 3 in Ligue 1 due to the leadership of Paul Pogba in midfield and the defensive stability added by Eric Dier. Their third-place finish last season confirmed consistency at the top level, and their excellent record at home remains a strength, making Monaco the second most likely club to finish Top 3 in Ligue 1 in 2025/26.
• Olympique de Marseille. Olympique de Marseille are the third main candidate to finish Top 3 in Ligue 1 due to the tactical structure of Roberto De Zerbi, the Italian coach hired in 2024 after his spell at Brighton, and the firepower brought by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The Vélodrome atmosphere continues to drive results, making Marseille one of the hardest teams to face at home and a strong candidate to secure a place among the top three in Ligue 1 this season.

Who is most likely to relegate in Ligue 1 this season?

Angers (10/11, 52%) and Metz (10/11, 52%) are joint favourites for relegation. Angers suffer from weak away form and lack of star-quality depth, while Metz lost several key players over the summer, undermining defensive stability and attacking options. Le Havre (1/1, 50%) enter with a structural deficit after multiple departures and limited resources, making it another likely candidate for relegation from Ligue 1.

More detail on the 3 clubs most likely to be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025/26 follows below.

• Angers (10/11, 52%). Angers are the main candidate to be relegated from Ligue 1 due to their poor away form and the lack of star-quality depth in their squad. Angers failed to win seven of their last eight Ligue 1 matches on the road, losing five and drawing two, a record that highlights their struggles outside their own ground. With a thin squad and an evident drop in quality whenever key players are absent, Angers look the most likely club to be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025/26.
• Metz (10/11, 52%). Metz are another main candidate to be relegated due to major summer departures and a shrinking attacking arsenal. The club captain Matthieu Udol left to join RC Lens, Arthur Atta moved to Udinese, Papa Amadou Diallo joined Norwich City, and other key contributors exited on free transfers. With weakened defence and fewer scoring threats, Metz are the second most likely club to be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025/26.
• Le Havre (1/1, 50%). Le Havre are the third main candidate to be relegated from Ligue 1 due to a structural deficit following a series of departures and limited reinforcements. They lost players such as Aliou Thiaré, Josué Casimir, Ahmed Hassan and Aloïs Confais, weakening both their midfield and attack. With budget constraints and pressure to adapt quickly to top-flight demands, Le Havre are the third club at risk of relegation from Ligue 1 in 2025/26.

Who is most likely to finish as Top Scorer in Ligue 1 this season?

Mason Greenwood (Marseille) is the bookmakers’ favourite to finish as Ligue 1’s top scorer at 3/1 (25%), supported by his strong debut campaign and central role in attack. Yet in our view Ousmane Dembélé (PSG), priced at 16/5 (23.8%) by major bookmakers, stands as the more convincing candidate, with improved finishing under Luis Enrique and a system built to give him the majority of PSG’s chances.

More detail on the 2 players most likely to finish as Ligue 1 top scorer in 2025/26 is given below.

• Ousmane Dembélé (16/5, 23.8%). Ousmane Dembélé is the main candidate to finish as Ligue 1 top scorer due to his evolution as PSG’s leading attacking outlet. Known previously for his creativity, Dembélé ended last season with his highest scoring tally in a domestic campaign and looks sharper in front of goal. With Kylian Mbappé no longer in Paris, Dembélé now occupies the focal point of the attack, receiving service from Vitinha and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. His pace and ability to create shots in transition make him the strongest candidate to finish as Ligue 1 top scorer this season.
• Mason Greenwood (3/1, 25%). Mason Greenwood is the second main candidate to finish as Ligue 1 top scorer due to his immediate impact since arriving in France and his consistent finishing ability. Greenwood scored regularly for Marseille in his first year, proving decisive in tight matches and earning trust as their penalty taker. His role under Roberto De Zerbi ensures he remains central to Marseille’s attack, making Greenwood another strong candidate to finish as Ligue 1 top scorer in 2025/26.

Ligue 1 Betting Stats and Data

To guide our Ligue 1 tips and betting advice, FootballPredictions.com tracks five years of historical data from France’s top division. These records cover outcomes such as home wins, draws, away wins, goals, and BTTS percentages, and they form the basis for our weekly previews across the most popular Ligue 1 betting markets.

Ligue 1 Stats (2025/2026)

Ligue 1 Regular Season

Ligue 1 Results

Ligue 1 Fixtures

What are Ligue 1 Predictions?

Ligue 1 predictions are expert forecasts of likely outcomes in France’s highest division, covering everything from title races and Champions League qualification to relegation battles, match results, and goal totals. Ligue 1 predictions are informed by statistical trends, tactical analysis, and current form, with the aim of turning raw data into actionable tips for bettors and fans.

Accurate Ligue 1 predictions require close attention to the unique character of French football. The league is known for its mix of star-powered clubs like Paris Saint-Germain and Monaco, historic sides such as Marseille and Lyon, and ambitious teams battling for survival.

Each season brings new dynamics, from summer signings and managerial changes to fixture congestion and European competition, all of which play a role in shaping reliable forecasts. Our analysts combine advanced data models with years of expertise in French football to deliver research-driven previews throughout the Ligue 1 campaign. By blending statistical insights with tactical context, we aim to help readers follow Ligue 1 more closely and make informed betting decisions across one of Europe’s most competitive leagues.

How are Ligue 1 Predictions determined?

Our analysts build the most accurate Ligue 1 predictions on the market through a three-step process that combines advanced statistics, tactical insight, and betting analysis, all tailored to the unique dynamics of France’s top division.

The five steps behind our Ligue 1 forecasts are:

• Setting the match context
• Assessing team form and underlying data
• Reviewing squad availability
• Considering venue and rivalry factors
• Comparing analysis with bookmaker markets

1. Setting the match context. Every Ligue 1 prediction begins by placing a fixture in its proper context. We log the kick-off time, competition stage, and what is at stake, whether it is a relegation battle at the bottom of the table or a clash between title contenders. Factoring in fixture congestion from domestic cups or European competitions is crucial as well, since these added commitments often affect rotation and energy levels.
2. Assessing team form and underlying data. After analysing match context, we examine advanced metrics such as expected goals (xG), chance creation, and defensive organisation to highlight whether a side is overperforming or underperforming. This step is crucial for shaping accurate Ligue 1 predictions as it helps separate temporary streaks from longer-term trends that shape sustainable results in Ligue 1.
3. Reviewing squad availability. Next, we look at player availability, since absences, suspensions, or new signings often change a team’s tactical balance. Losing a key defender may leave gaps at the back, while the arrival of a creative midfielder could open fresh attacking options. By analysing how managers adjust to these shifts, we ensure Ligue 1 predictions account for the impact of squad depth on realistic match outcomes.
4. Considering venue and rivalry factors. Home advantage plays a major role in Ligue 1, with several clubs consistently producing stronger results in their own stadiums. Meanwhile, away form varies widely between teams. Historical rivalries and derby matches are taken into account as well, since they often bring added intensity and unpredictable dynamics, further informing our Ligue 1 forecasts.
5. Comparing analysis with bookmaker markets. Finally, our Ligue 1 projections are tested against the betting odds. By converting bookmaker prices into implied probabilities, we identify gaps where our models suggest different outcomes. These mismatches often signal value opportunities, turning analysis into actionable Ligue 1 betting tips for readers.

When are Ligue 1 Predictions released?

Ligue 1 predictions are released every Monday at 3:00 PM London time to cover the weekend round. For midweek fixtures, tips are released the day after the last game of the previous round, again at 3:00 PM. This schedule ensures our football predictions are based on full analysis and double-checking, giving readers reliable Ligue 1 forecasts ahead of the next matches.

What are the most appealing Betting Markets to bet on for the Ligue 1?

The most appealing betting markets for Ligue 1 are Match Result, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and Over/Under 2.5 Goals. These markets show consistent hit rates across multiple seasons and provide stronger statistical backing than volatile options such as Correct Score.

The 3 most appealing betting markets for Ligue 1 are outlined below.

• Match Result (Home Win, Draw, Away Win). The Match Result, or 1X2 market, remains the cornerstone of Ligue 1 betting. Over the last five seasons, home wins have occurred in 37–47% of matches, with away wins between 31–38% and draws 20–27%.
• Both Teams to Score (BTTS). BTTS is a highly reliable market in Ligue 1, cashing when both sides find the net. Across the last five years, BTTS has landed between 54–58% of the time, with the most recent season hitting 57%. This reflects a league where attacking setups often outperform defensive stability, especially among mid-table clubs.
• Over 2.5 Goals. Over 2.5 Goals is another consistent market in Ligue 1. In the past five seasons it has landed in 50–56% of matches, climbing to 56% in both 2022–23 and 2024–25. Even fixtures between mid-table teams like Montpellier or Rennes frequently deliver end-to-end action, making Over 2.5 Goals one of the most attractive Ligue 1 betting markets.

The table below summarises the key Ligue 1 outcomes from the past five seasons across the three main betting markets.

Ligue 1 Season Guide

Ligue 1, officially Ligue 1 McDonald’s, is France’s top division run by the Ligue de Football Professionnel with 18 clubs since 2023–24. The league runs from August to May with promotion and relegation to and from Ligue 2. Paris Saint-Germain are the current champions and hold the record for most titles. The competition’s sponsorship switched to McDonald’s in 2024, reflecting the Ligue 1’s push to strengthen its commercial profile.

What Is the Format of the Ligue 1 2025/26 Season?

The format of the Ligue 1 2025/26 season features 18 clubs, each playing every other team twice, once at home and once away, for a total of 34 matches. Teams earn three points for a win and one point for a draw, with rankings determined first by points, then goal difference, and then goals scored. When clubs finish level in decisive positions (such as the title, relegation, or European qualification) the rules apply head-to-head records as the first tiebreaker. When teams remain inseparable, a playoff at a neutral ground decides the outcome.

The bottom two clubs from Ligue 1 drop directly to Ligue 2, while the 17th-placed side takes part in a two-legged relegation/promotion playoff against the 3rd-placed team from Ligue 2. The highest finishers secure European football according to UEFA allocations, with the top four teams qualifying for the UEFA Champions League, the 5th-placed side moving into the Europa League, and the 6th-placed side entering the Europa Conference League.

What are the Start & End Dates for Ligue 1 2025/26?

The Ligue 1 2025/26 season runs from 15 August 2025 to 17 May 2026. The campaign opened on the weekend of 15–17 August, with Rennes hosting Marseille in the curtain-raiser, and proceeds through to late spring 2026 under the standard August-to-May calendar.

How are Ligue 1 Fixtures built up?

The Ligue de Football Professionnel (LFP) builds the Ligue 1 calendar with the help of Fastbreak, a specialised scheduling optimisation software that generates dozens of draft versions before the most suitable schedule is refined and submitted for approval by the LFP’s Board of Directors, ensuring stadium availability, security, broadcast demands, and European fixtures are all accounted for.

Since 2014, the Ligue 1 calendar is asymmetrical, meaning the order of opponents in the second half does not mirror the first half. This format frees the LFP to spread headline games across the season, avoid repeat clusters around holidays, and fit around stadium unavailability, security needs, TV slots, and European dates.

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